Epidemiology, Biodiversity, and Technological Trajectories in the Brazilian Amazon: From Malaria to COVID-19.

The Amazon biome is under severe threat due to increasing deforestation rates and loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services while sustaining a high burden of neglected tropical diseases. Approximately two thirds of this biome are located within Brazilian territory. There, socio-economic and environmental landscape transformations are linked to the regional agrarian economy dynamics, which has developed into six techno-productive trajectories (TTs). These TTs are the product of the historical interaction between Peasant and Farmer and Rancher practices, technologies and rationalities. This article investigates the distribution of the dominant Brazilian Amazon TTs and their association with environmental degradation and vulnerability to neglected tropical diseases. The goal is to provide a framework for the joint debate of the local economic, environmental and health dimensions. We calculated the dominant TT for each municipality in 2017. Peasant trajectories (TT1, TT2, and TT3) are dominant in ca. fifty percent of the Amazon territory, mostly concentrated in areas covered by continuous forest where malaria is an important morbidity and mortality cause. Cattle raising trajectories are associated with higher deforestation rates. Meanwhile, Farmer and Rancher economies are becoming dominant trajectories, comprising large scale cattle and grain production. These trajectories are associated with rapid biodiversity loss and a high prevalence of neglected tropical diseases, such as leishmaniasis, Aedes-borne diseases and Chagas disease. Overall, these results defy simplistic views that the dominant development trajectory for the Amazon will optimize economic, health and environmental indicators. This approach lays the groundwork for a more integrated narrative consistent with the economic history of the Brazilian Amazon.

Assessing the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mobility, morbidity and social vulnerability.

Brazil detected community transmission of COVID-19 on March 13, 2020. In this study we identified which areas in the country were the most vulnerable for COVID-19, both in terms of the risk of arrival of cases, the risk of sustained transmission and their social vulnerability. Probabilistic models were used to calculate the probability of COVID-19 spread from São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, the initial hotspots, using mobility data from the pre-epidemic period, while multivariate cluster analysis of socio-economic indices was done to identify areas with similar social vulnerability. The results consist of a series of maps of effective distance, outbreak probability, hospital capacity and social vulnerability. They show areas in the North and Northeast with high risk of COVID-19 outbreak that are also highly socially vulnerable. Later, these areas would be found the most severely affected. The maps produced were sent to health authorities to aid in their efforts to prioritize actions such as resource allocation to mitigate the effects of the pandemic. In the discussion, we address how predictions compared to the observed dynamics of the disease.